Obama can't relax and enjoy his lead in the polls.

Obama can't relax and enjoy his lead in the polls.

According to a Real Clear Politics poll, which is an average of all the major polls, Barack Obama is beating John McCain 48.9 percent to 43.8 percent among likely voters. Not bad for the Obama camp, considering the race was a dead heat a few weeks ago. The analysis of the debate went almost unanimously to Obama, but I see clouds on the horizon for “that one.” Two important factors still stand in the way of Obama’s road to the presidency, and unless he expands his lead even further before November 4, the word “hope” may take on a more traditional meaning in his campaign.

First, there is the as yet unseen, but nearly undeniable, effect of race on this election. Anyone who lives in the Midwest will tell you that people are a lot more racist when they think nobody is looking. You know your crazy uncle who is perfectly congenial until he has a few drinks at the family reunion? The one who inevitably starts speaking his mind about politics and society and the welfare state because “fuck it, we’re all family!” Everyone has that uncle -- everyone. Still don’t believe race is going to be an issue? Check this recent study done by Associated Press and Yahoo News or this study by Stanford. This sort of racial divide is sad, and at this point in the campaign, downright ridiculous, but it exists. The facts are there. Unless there is a sudden paradigm shift in the minds of the Americans who are uncomfortable with a black man in the Oval Office, Obama is in a tighter race than his supporters would like to admit. The saddest part is that he has not run his campaign along racial lines at all. It is clear that Barack Obama did not believe he would be judged solely by the content of his character, though in the eyes of many voters he was and will be, which is why he has been so careful to appear calm and collected. He knows that just one slip-up could brand him with the repulsive "angry black man" stereotype. He has meticulously avoided being characterized along racial lines. Unfortunately the statistics don't lie: that will not be enough to sway some Americans, and everyone gets a vote -- for better or worse.

The other problem Obama will have to come to terms with is the schizoid attention span of American mass media. As bad as it is, the economy won’t dominate the news cycle (read public consciousness) forever. Eventually O’Reilly, Beck and Matthews will find “new” things to yell about, and the media will move on. Because illegal immigration is slipping, it will probably be either Pakistan or Distinguished Professor/Former Domestic Terrorist William Ayers. Both options offer plenty to yell and bluster about, and they are relatively recent events in the news cycle. It’s hard to tell if the Ayers story is dying out or just now picking up steam, but after having so many of his “friends” called into question, you'd think Obama would set his Facebook page to private.

Regardless, he cannot allow his lead to narrow any further, and anything that shifts the public's attention away from the economy is bad for him. The Obama campaign obviously realizes the danger of letting John McCain say Obama associates with terrorists, so a few hours ago the Illinois senator made a ballsy (albeit a bit childish) challenge to McCain. At this point I would not be surprised to turn on C-SPAN and see a big circle of senators in the hallway of the Capitol chanting, “Fight! Fight! Fight!” For the first time since 1856, the British Parliament will hear the American news and think our legislators are being uncivil.

All jokes about the petty, floundering state of American democracy aside, the Obama campaign should be wary of breaking out the champagne any time soon. There is still nearly a month to go until the election, and things seem to be getting more ridiculous by the day. One thing is for certain: the combination of one of the most negative campaign seasons of all time and a president with approval ratings as low as post-Watergate Nixon means the real winner when this near-farcical election is over will be America.